In this project, you will work in groups of 1-2 to study a climate risk problem of your choosing. The goal of this project is to apply principles and tools of climate risk analysis. Therefore, the project should:
Be focused on a risk-based framing of the selected problem, thinking through how components of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and response are present in the real-world system and will be represented in your study;
Include quantification and/or characterization of relevant uncertainties which is appropriate for the type(s) of uncertainty (e.g. deep vs. well-characterized) the system, and the system model;
Consider implications of your analysis for risk management (though a formal decision analysis is not required).
All submissions will be handled via Gradescope by the appropriate due dates, and should be submitted as PDFs (supporting code can be provided as a GitHub repository, with a link provided in the PDF). Any late submissions will be penalized by 10% per day unless prior arrangements are made.
After completing this project, students will be able to:
identify contributors to risk related to climate change;
quantify and/or characterize relevant uncertainties.
You should submit a project proposal presenting the following:
The risk problem you are interested in studying;
Initial thoughts on how you will model the system, including relevant uncertainties you will consider;
Any preliminary data sources, metrics, etc that you are considering using.
The proposal will be graded only on completion. It should be no more than one page (double-spaced, 12 point font, 1 inch margins) not including references.
You should submit a research plan with more details on your intended modeling approach, including key questions, information on data sources, more specific modeling details and representations of uncertainty. This plan will be graded based on level of detail, clarity of writing and presentation, and alignment of the research plan with key questions and hypotheses.
The research plan should be no more than four pages (double-spaced, 12 point font, 1 inch margins), not including references or figures.
Your group should conduct a modeling study analyzing your system of interest. Your submission of results should be made in the form of a poster. This poster should include:
a brief overview of your problem of interest;
your question framing and any relevant hypotheses guiding your study;
how you modeled the system, including how you represented uncertainties and risk in your analysis;
your results and conclusions, including comments on relevant assumptions and how they might have influenced the results.
A template will be provided for this poster (though this specific template does not need to be used), which will specify the appropriate dimensions and font sizes, and some other example posters will be provided for guidance on layout and content.
On the last day of class, we will do oral project presentations. These presentations should be no longer than 7 slides and 15 minutes, with 5 minutes afterwards for questions (more questions can be asked with any leftover time at the end). For groups of 2, both group members should participate in the presentation. Presentations will be graded on clarity, participation in the presentation, and thoroughness.
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